Professor Allan Lichtman at the American University has a special talent. Since 1984 he has accurately predicted each presidential outcome. He even predicted Trump would win and that he would get impeached. I mean… that last one was something anyone could have predicted. Am I right?
Lichtman created a system consisting of 13 “keys” that take into account factors such as social unrest, short-term economic figures, scandals, and incumbency. According to his keys, Trump is an incumbent that has no Republican challengers, made sweeping policy changes, avoided major military failures, and is running against an “uncharismatic challenger.” However, it’s the scandals, pandemic, rising unemployment, police brutality, protests, and systematic racism that have set the stage for Biden’s victory. According to Lichtman, “there are forces that play outside the keys such as Russian interference and voter suppression.” What would a bold prediction be without an escape clause, eh?
What do you think? Is Lichtman onto something, or is he just a guy on a 9-term winning streak?